What hurricanes?

I have a problem with the news reports about hurricane predictions for this season, especially when reporters start comparing them to last season. They make quotes like this one from CBS/AP:

The National Hurricane Center has forecast as many as 16 named storms this year – with as many as six major storms, which is less than last year’s record hurricane activity.

Well, it’s true that the forecast calls for fewer storms than actually occurred last year. But last year was a record season and beyond all forecasts made in 2005. Just what did they predict in 2005?

The NOAA 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook issued May 16, 2005, says:

NOAA’s 2005 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 70% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms [named storms], with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes.

Now let’s think about this. Comparing the 2006 forecast to the 2005 forecast only, then obviously the forecast for 2006 is actually worse than last year. Why? Are they trying to err on the side of caution this time, by upping the numbers a little? Or if they’re using the same methods that generated last year’s predictions, why I have not heard anyone acknowledging that the same data sources are predicting more storms? [edit: at least once source is trying to address these questions] Yes, last year was record-breaking beyond expectation. But if this year’s forecast is worse compared to last year’s forecast, might there not be a correlation to a higher potential for a bad season — bad beyond expectation — this year as well?

No, I’m not an Armageddon person, trying to warn that the end of the world is near. It just bugs me that the hurricane predictions are being downplayed. Sure, there are also plenty of stories about Guf Coast communities, big and urban to small and rural, still recovering from last year, passing the blame around and trying to figure out what to do if another big storm comes this year. But who on the East Coast is taking the season more seriously? How many are taking a “surely it couldn’t happen here like it did there” attitude?

Anyone who has seen the devastated areas first-hand says it’s unbelievable. Anyone who hasn’t seen them can’t imagine the reality of it happening to their hometown.

So I make a call to you folks on the East Coast and in New England, and to anyone farther south who slipped away without much damage last year. Buy your batteries now. Stock up on water and canned goods now. Don’t wait to storm the supermarket like everyone else. Make a list of what you need to take with you if evacuation is necessary. Set a couple of boxes aside, folded flat in the back of your closet, just in case you need to pack and leave. If there is the slightest chance that an approaching storm could turn and ravage your area, buy your generator and refill your prescriptions immediately.

And what If this season is not so bad, and I have been needlessly alarmed? You will find that your precautions were not wasted. You will relax for a couple of weekends instead of running to the store. You’ll have enough batteries to run the kids’ CD players and portable gaming devices until next spring. You’ll make fewer errands for a little while until you use up what you have. Consume your food stores in your autumn holiday meals, giving thanks that you didn’t need them earlier. And if a bad winter storm passes your way, that generator may still come in handy.